If I lost my phone in the water at the beach, what are the chances it will wash up on shore and how long until it did so?

Was surfing this morning and had my Iphone X in this new waterproof bag i was trying out and it snapped off my neck and i lost it.
Not expecting to see it again, but what are the chances it will wash up to shore and how long until it would do so?

Happened this morning 8:00am in oceanside CA if this info effects the tide or current at all.

It'll take about 47 months, 27 days, 11 hours and 49 minutes providing no earthquake hits the area